TRADING USD/JPY


 

 

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TRADING USD/JPY

UNDERSTANDING USD/JPY


The USD/JPY foreign currency exchange rate is the price of one U.S. dollar - the base currency - in terms of Japanese yen - the quote currency. For example, a bid/ask quote of 89.29/89.32 means that one U.S. dollar can be bought for 89.32 yen and one U.S. dollar can be sold at 89.29 yen.

If the U.S. dollar is expected to appreciate against the yen, then the above quote might rise to say, 89.73/89.76. The forex strategy in this case would be to buy USD/JPY. If, on the other hand, the U.S. dollar is expected to depreciate against the yen, then the above quote might fall to say, 88.68/88.71. The forex strategy in this case would be to sell USD/JPY.

USD/JPY FOREX STRATEGY

Forex Chart Type:
Forex Trading System:
Forex Signal:
USD/JPY 5-minute candlestick chart over 120-bar period.
Designed for trading an event: economic data or news release.
Break-out through resistance (solid white line), trailing stop.


Let's say that a forex trader has just logged into the forex trading platform a few minutes before the 8:30 a.m. release of some important U.S. economic data. The trader is looking at USD/JPY and has identified a recent area of resistance around 88.56, the white solid line on the chart above. If the exchange rate breaks up and through that resistance, then the trader will buy USD/JPY. The vertical arrow shows the 8:30 a.m. price bar. Ten minutes later, USD/JPY breaks through identified resistance that generates the following trade as per the forex trading system:

Instrument:
Buy Price:
Notional Amount:
Leverage:
Used Margin:
Buy USD/JPY
88.59
100,000 U.S. dollars
50:1 or 2% of notional amount; pip value = $11.29*
U.S. $2,000

* Pip value will change slightly in response to movements in the USD/JPY exchange rate.

Based on the rules of the forex trading system, the trader enters a sell stop order to automatically close this position should USD/JPY fall to 88.44 which will risk 15 pips or $169 on the position. The trader does not know how far prices may move higher. So, rather than guess a target level, the trader sets the stop order to trail 15 pips behind the market. The stop price will automatically rise with the market but will never be lowered; should the market fall to the stop price, then the trade will be automatically closed. The chart below shows price activity over the subsequent half hour.

USD/JPY did continue to rally and with every new market high price, the stop was trailed to lie 15 pips below that price. After 30 minutes of strength, USD/JPY subsequently sold off and hit the stop order which closed the trade as follows:

Instrument:
Sell Price:
Notional Amount:
Net Gain/Loss:
Sell USD/JPY
88.96
100,000 U.S. dollars
Gain = 37 pips = $418 less any applicable fees.

IMPORTANT NOTES

THE RISK OF LOSS IN FOREX TRADING CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.

1. The above example of a forex trading system is for informational purposes only and is not meant to construe trading advice. While prices are actual, the period was selected to best illustrate the particular forex trading system and no implication is being made that this system will always produced positive results.

2. Increasing (decreasing) the leverage and/or notional value in the forex trade example shown above will increase (decrease) the risk, used margin, and magnitude of resulting profit or loss. In choosing these values, the forex trader should consider the amount of available risk capital, trading experience and tolerance for risk.

3. The used margin is the minimum amount of cash that must reside in the forex trading account at all times so long as this currency position is open. Used margin calculation varies in part depending upon the value of the exhange rate upon establishing the position. For multiple positions, the used margin for all open positions are aggregated. Should the account value decline below the used margin, a margin call may be issued and all open positions may be automatically closed by the forex trading platform.

4. The example above assumes the forex trading account is with a U.S.-regulated forex broker. As such and because of the FIFO rule, the stop order is an entry order and cannot be tied to the open currency position. It, therefore, must be manually canceled upon closure of the trade.

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Keywords: trading USD/JPY, USD/JPY forex strategy, trading USDJPY, USDJPY forex strategy
Abstract: Trading USD/JPY: Example forex strategy based on a break-out with trailing stop order.